Présentation de l'éditeur
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?
The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.
In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.
Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.
Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?
Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Extrait
Chapter 1
The Resurrection of Risk
In the Road Runner cartoon the joke is always the same. Wile E. Coyote chases the Road Runner, misses a sharp turn, and runs right over the edge of the cliff. He looks down and, realizing too late that he is in midair, plunges into the chasm below.
This may seem uncomfortably familiar to those who found themselves carried away by the excitement of the 1990s economic boom. Too late they realized that profits, jobs, or stock prices were already in a free fall. But, unlike the cartoon, it was not funny. A shift from boom to bust, from economic expansion to recession, like the one we experienced in 2001, can be painful, even tragic, for those blindsided by the downturn. That is why it is so critical to be forewarned of turning points in the economy.
Is that even possible? Many would say "no." It is true that economic forecasters rarely get recession calls right. In fact, as a recent study concluded, "The [worldwide] record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished."1
But we are here to tell you a different story. It really is possible to predict recessions. And we will show you how, so that you will no longer be at the mercy of economic cycles. Whether you are an employee or a student, a business manager or a policy maker, you can learn to navigate the economy's ups and downs.
We will describe a cyclical framework for viewing the economy that relies on an array of objective indicators that, if used properly, warn of turning points before they happen. We will also tell you why many of the commonly followed economic indicators can be misleading. You'll discover you don't need a Ph.D. in economics or even a full-time focus on the economy to use our techniques.
